Women date up finanially4/25/2023 The results of this equal-marriage-rate simulation are as follows: ![]() The intuition here is that most people are likely to marry someone with a broadly similar background as themselves, and siblings, by definition, have an almost identical one. In our simulation, we assume that the additional women who are married have a husband with the same economic characteristics as their brother (see the Technical Paper for our detailed methods). The results will of course depend not just on whether they marry, but also on whom they marry. We set out to model the impact of household formation by artificially equalizing the marriage rates of black women and white women. Equally, if black women are more likely than white women to end up as single, they will also record a lower family income. If white women end up with white men, who in terms of their earnings are more than twice as likely to escape poverty as black men, their family income will be higher. The most obvious is that, assuming marriages or cohabitation mostly occur within racial groups, black women’s family position is damaged directly or indirectly by the poor outcomes for black men. Why? Various explanations could be given. ![]() Lower marriage rates aren’t hurting black mobility This result is probably driven by the fact that black women tend to create families with black men who do poorly on both counts and thus bring down the family income results for black women. Black women do reasonably well on the first and very poorly on the second. Whites do well on both counts black men do poorly on both counts. The headline finding here is that, among those who grew up poor, black women are the only group showing a marked difference between the risk of being in the bottom quintile of the individual earnings distribution (for each gender), and the risk of being in the bottom quintile of the family income distribution (for the whole age cohort). For whites, the odds of remaining stuck in poverty remain relatively low, for both men (28 percent) and women (33 percent), when we use a family income measure. We then estimate the impact of racial differences in marriage rates by simulating higher marriage rates among black women: like Chetty, we find no significant effects.īlack women face a very high risk of being stuck in poverty (62 percent), surpassing even the 50 percent risk faced by black men. We also confirm that black women, despite their solid earnings mobility, have very low family income mobility. We confirm the stark differences in upward earnings mobility for black men compared to both black women and whites. (See our longer Technical Paper here, and full Results here). In a new paper published today, we examine the same question in a different way. As they conclude, “parental marital status has little impact on intergenerational gaps” (p. calculate the intergenerational mobility rates of black and white men raised in both single parent and married families, and find little difference. In an attempt to estimate the impact of different marriage rates, Chetty et al. This is because black women continue to have substantially lower levels of household income than white women, both because they are less likely to be married and because black men earn less than white men.” (p. ![]() It is important to note, however, that this finding does not imply that the black-white gap in women’s individual incomes will vanish with time. ![]() “We conclude based on the preceding analysis that the black-white intergenerational gap in individual income is substantial for men, but quite small for women. show that black men born to low-income parents are much more likely to end up with a low individual income than black women, white women, and-especially-white men. The report is another contribution to the growing literature showing that race gaps in the intergenerational persistence of poverty are in large part the result of poor outcomes for black men. But the big finding is that race gaps in intergenerational mobility largely reflect the poor outcomes for black men. As always, there is a huge amount of data and analysis in the new paper. Black men, stuck in poverty: Chetty’s latestīut gender is a big part of the story too, as detailed in a new paper from the Equality of Opportunity Project, “ Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective” by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie Jones, and Sonya Porter. Why? Many factors are at work, including educational inequalities, neighborhood effects, workplace discrimination, parenting, access to credit, rates of incarceration, and so on. Black Americans born poor are much less likely to move up the income ladder than those in other racial groups, especially whites.
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